niftymama

intraday update Nifty Feb 13

2012-02-13T15:56:00.000+05:30

Another inside day doji formation. We can expect a breakout tomorrow after consolidation between 5350 to 5380. Expect minium 70 point gain in either breakout above 5396 or 5320. I would not suggest any trading within the range.

Important Nifty Level for today

2012-02-13T09:57:00.000+05:30

Look out for 5339 for lower weakness

Warren Buffett Biography

2012-02-12T02:49:00.001+05:30

Warren Edward Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 to his father Howard, a stockbroker-turned-Congressman. The only boy, he was the second of three children, and displayed an amazing aptitude for both money and business at a very early age. Acquaintances recount his uncanny ability to calculate columns of numbers off the top of his head - a feat Warren still amazes business colleagues with today.
At only six years old, Buffett purchased 6-packs of Coca Cola from his grandfather's grocery store for twenty five cents and resold each of the bottles for a nickel, pocketing a five cent profit. While other children his age were playing hopscotch and jacks, Warren was making money. Five years later, Buffett took his step into the world of high finance. At eleven years old, he purchased three shares of Cities Service Preferred at $38 per share for both himself and his older sister, Doris. Shortly after buying the stock, it fell to just over $27 per share. A frightened but resilient Warren held his shares until they rebounded to $40. He promptly sold them - a mistake he would soon come to regret. Cities Service shot up to $200. The experience taught him one of the basic lessons of investing: patience is a virtue.
Warren Buffett's Education
In 1947, a seventeen year old Warren Buffett graduated from High School. It was never his intention to go to college; he had already made $5,000 delivering newspapers (this is equal to $42,610.81 in 2000). His father had other plans, and urged his son to attend the Wharton Business School at the University of Pennsylvania. Buffett stayed two years, complaining that he knew more than his professors. When Howard was defeated in the 1948 Congressional race, Warren returned home to Omaha and transferred to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Working full-time, he managed to graduate in only three years.
Warren Buffett approached graduate studies with the same resistance he displayed a few years earlier. He was finally persuaded to apply to Harvard Business School, which, in the worst admission decision in history, rejected him as "too young". Slighted, Warren applied to Columbia where famed investors Ben Graham and David Dodd taught - an experience that would forever change his life.
Ben Graham - Buffett's Mentor
Ben Graham had become well known during the 1920's. At a time when the rest of the world was approaching the investment arena as a giant game of roulette, he searched for stocks that were so inexpensive they were almost completely devoid of risk. One of his best known calls was the Northern Pipe Line, an oil transportation company managed by the Rockefellers. The stock was trading at $65 a share, but after studying the balance sheet, Graham realized that the company had bond holdings worth $95 for every share. The value investor tried to convince management to sell the portfolio, but they refused. Shortly thereafter, he waged a proxy war and secured a spot on the Board of Directors. The company sold its bonds and paid a dividend in the amount of $70 per share.
When he was 40 years old, Ben Graham published Security Analysis, one of the greatest works ever penned on the stock market. At the time, it was risky; investing in equities had become a joke (the Dow Jones had fallen from 381.17 to 41.22 over the course of three to four short years following the crash of 1929). It was around this time that Graham came up with the principle of "intrinsic" business value - a measure of a business's true worth that was completely and totally independent of the stock price. Using intrinsic value, investors could decide what a company was worth and make investment decisions accordingly. His subsequent book, The Intelligent Investor, which Warren celebrates as "the greatest book on investing ever written", introduced the world to Mr. Market - the best investment analogy in history.
Through his simple yet profound investment principles, Ben Graham became an idyllic figure to the twenty-one year old Warren Buffett. Reading an old edition of Who's Who, Warren discovered his mentor was the Chairman of a small, unknown insurance company named GEICO. He hopped a train to Washington D.C. one Saturday morning to find the headquarters. When he got there, the doors were locked. Not to be stopped, Buffett relentlessly pounded on the door until a janitor came to open it for him. He asked if there was anyone in the building. As luck (or fate) would have it, there was. It turns out that there was a man still working on the sixth floor. Warren was escorted up to meet him and immediately began asking him questions about the company and its business practices; a conversation that stretched on for four hours. The man was none other than Lorimer Davidson, the Financial Vice President. The experience would be something that stayed with Buffett for the rest of his life. He eventually acquired the entire GEICO company through his corporation, Berkshire Hathaway.
Flying through his graduate studies at Columbia, Warren Buffett was the only student ever to earn an A+ in one of Graham's classes. Disappointingly. both Ben Graham and Warren's father advised him not to work on Wall Street after he graduated. Absolutely determined, Buffett offered to work for the Graham partnership for free. Ben turned him down. He preferred to hold his spots for Jews who were not hired at Gentile firms at the time. Warren was crushed.
Warren Buffett Returns Home
Returning home, he took a job at his father's brokerage house and began seeing a girl by the name of Susie Thompson. The relationship eventually turned serious and in April of 1952 the two were married. They rented out a three-room apartment for $65 a month; it was run-down and served as home to several mice. It was here their daughter, also named Susie, was born. In order to save money, they made a bed for her in a dresser drawer.
During these initial years, Warren's investments were predominately limited to a Texaco station and some real estate, but neither were successful. It was also during this time he began teaching night classes at the University of Omaha (something that wouldn't have been possible several months before. In an effort to conquer his intense fear of public speaking, Warren took a course by Dale Carnegie). Thankfully, things changed. Ben Graham called one day, inviting the young stockbroker to come to work for him. Warren was finally given the opportunity he had long awaited.
Warren Buffett Goes to Work for Ben Graham
The couple took a house in the suburbs of New York. Buffett spent his days analyzing S&P reports, searching for investment opportunities. It was during this time that the difference between the Graham and Buffett philosophies began to emerge. Warren became interested in how a company worked - what made it superior to competitors. Ben simply wanted numbers whereas Warren was predominately interested in a company's management as a major factor when deciding to invest, Graham looked only at the balance sheet and income statement; he could care less about corporate leadership. Between 1950 and 1956, Warren built his personal capital up to $140,000 from a mere $9,800. With this war chest, he set his sights back on Omaha and began planning his next move.
On May 1, 1956, Warren Buffett rounded up seven limited partners which included his Sister Doris and Aunt Alice, raising $105,000 in the process. He put in $100 himself, officially creating the Buffett Associates, Ltd. Before the end of the year, he was managing around $300,000 in capital. Small, to say the least, but he had much bigger plans for that pool of money. He purchased a house for $31,500, affectionately nicknamed "Buffett's Folly", and managed his partnerships originally from the bedroom, and later, a small office. By this time, his life had begun to take shape; he had three children, a beautiful wife, and a very successful business.
Over the course of the next five years, the Buffett partnerships racked up an impressive 251.0% profit, while the Dow was up only 74.3%. A somewhat-celebrity in his hometown, Warren never gave stock tips despite constant requests from friends and strangers alike. By 1962, the partnership had capital in excess of $7.2 million, of which a cool $1 million was Buffett's personal stake (he didn't charge a fee for the partnership - rather Warren was entitled to 1/4 of the profits above 4%). He also had more than 90 limited partners across the United States. In one decisive move, he melded the partnerships into a single entity called "Buffett Partnerships Ltd.", upped the minimum investment to $100,000, and opened an office in Kiewit Plaza on Farnam street.
In 1962, a man by the name of Charlie Munger moved back to his childhood home of Omaha from California. Though somewhat snobbish, Munger was brilliant in every sense of the word. He had attended Harvard Law School without a Bachelor's Degree. Introduced by mutual friends, Buffett and Charlie were immediately drawn together, providing the roots for a friendship and business collaboration that would last for the next forty years.
Ten years after its founding, the Buffett Partnership assets were up more than 1,156% compared to the Dow's 122.9%. Acting as lord over assets that had ballooned to $44 million dollars, Warren and Susie's personal stake was $6,849,936. Mr. Buffett, as they say, had arrived.
Wisely enough, just as his persona of success was beginning to be firmly established, Warren Buffett closed the partnership to new accounts. The Vietnam war raged full force on the other side of the world and the stock market was being driven up by those who hadn't been around during the depression. All while voicing his concern for rising stock prices, the partnership pulled its biggest coup in 1968, recording a 59.0% gain in value, catapulting to over $104 million in assets.
The next year, Warren went much further than closing the fund to new accounts; he liquidated the partnership. In May 1969, he informed his partners that he was "unable to find any bargains in the current market". Buffett spent the remainder of the year liquidating the portfolio, with the exception of two companies - Berkshire and Diversified Retailing. The shares of Berkshire were distributed among the partners with a letter from Warren informing them that he would, in some capacity, be involved in the business, but was under no obligation to them in the future. Warren was clear in his intention to hold onto his own stake in the company (he owned 29% of the Berkshire Hathaway stock) but his intentions weren't revealed.
Warren Buffett Gains Control of Berkshire Hathaway
Buffett's role at Berkshire Hathaway had actually been somewhat defined years earlier. On May 10, 1965, after accumulating 49% of the common stock, Warren named himself Director. Terrible management had run the company nearly into the ground, and he was certain with a bit of tweaking, it could be run better. Immediately Mr. Buffett made Ken Chace President of the company, giving him complete autonomy over the organization. Although he refused to award stock options on the basis that it was unfair to shareholders, Warren agreed to cosign a loan for $18,000 for his new President to purchase 1,000 shares of the company's stock.
Two years later, in 1967, Warren asked National Indemnity's founder and controlling shareholder Jack Ringwalt to his office. Asked what he thought the company was worth, Ringwalt told Buffett at least $50 per share, a $17 premium above its then-trading price of $33. Warren offered to buy the whole company on the spot - a move that cost him $8.6 million dollars. That same year, Berkshire paid out a dividend of 10 cents on its outstanding stock. It never happened again; Warren said he "must have been in the bathroom when the dividend was declared".
In 1970, Buffett named himself Chairman of the Board of Berkshire Hathaway and for the first time, wrote the letter to the shareholders (Ken Chace had been responsible for the task in the past). That same year, the Chairman's capital allocation began to display his prudence; textile profits were a pitiful $45,000, while insurance and banking each brought in $2.1 and $2.6 million dollars. The paltry cash brought in from the struggling looms in New Bedford, Massachusetts had provided the stream of capital necessary to start building Berkshire.
A year or so later, Warren Buffett was offered the chance to buy a company by the name of See's Candy. The gourmet chocolate maker sold its own brand of candies to its customers at a premium to regular confectionary treats. The balance sheet reflected what Californians already knew - they were more than willing to pay a bit "extra" for the special "See's" taste. The businessman decided Berkshire would be willing to purchase the company for $25 million in cash. See's owners were holding out for $30 million, but soon conceded. It was the biggest investment Berkshire or Buffett had ever made.
Following several investments and an SEC investigation (after causing a merger to fail, Warren and Munger offered to buy the stock of Wesco, the target company, at the inflated price simply because they thought it was "the right thing to do". Not surprisingly, the government didn't believe them), Buffett began to see Berkshire's net worth climb. From 1965 to 1975, the company's book value rose from $20 per share to around $95. It was also during this period that Warren made his final purchases of Berkshire stock (when the partnership dolled out the shares, he owned 29%. Years later, he had invested more than $15.4 million dollars into the company at an average cost of $32.45 per share). This brought his ownership to over 43% of the stock with Susie holding another 3%. His entire fortune was placed into Berkshire. With no personal holdings, the company had become his sole investment vehicle.
In 1976, Buffett once again became involved with GEICO. The company had recently reported amazingly high losses and its stock was pummeled down to $2 per share. Warren wisely realized that the basic business was still in tact; most of the problem were caused by an inept management. Over the next few years, Berkshire built up its position in this ailing insurer and reaped millions in profits. Benjamin Graham, who still held his fortune in the company, died in in September of the same year, shortly before the turnaround. Years later, the insurance giant would become a fully owned subsidiary of Berkshire.
It was shortly thereafter one of the most profound and upsetting events in Buffett's life took place. At forty-five, Susan Buffett left her husband - in form. Although she remained married to Warren, the humanitarian / singer secured an apartment in San Francisco and, insisting she wanted to live on her own, moved there. Warren was absolutely devastated; throughout his life, Susie had been "the sunshine and rain in my [his] garden". The two remained close, speaking every day, taking their annual two-week New York trip, and meeting the kids at their California Beach house for Christmas get-togethers. The transition was hard for the businessman, but he eventually grew somewhat accustomed to the new arrangement. Susie called several women in the Omaha area and insisted they go to dinner and a movie with her husband; eventually, she set Warren up with Astrid Menks, a waitress. Within the year, she moved in with Buffett, all with Susie's blessing.
Warren Buffett Wants Two Nickels to Rub Together
By the late '70s, the his reputation had grown to the point that the rumor Warren Buffett was buying a stock was enough to shoot its price up 10%. Berkshire Hathaway's stock was trading at more than $290 a share, and Buffett's personal wealth was almost $140 million. The irony was that Warren never sold a single share of his company, meaning his entire available cash was the $50,000 salary he received. During this time, he made a comment to a broker, "Everything I got is tied up in Berkshire. I'd like a few nickels outside."
This prompted Warren to start investing for his personal life. According to Roger Lowenstein's "Buffett", Warren was far more speculative with his own investments. At one point he bought copper futures which was unadulterated speculation. In a short time, he had made $3 million dollars. When prompted to invest in real estate by a friend, he responded "Why should I buy real estate when the stock market is so easy?"
Berkshire Hathaway Announces Charitable Giving Program
Later, Buffett once again showed his tendency of bucking the popular trend. In 1981, the decade of greed, Berkshire announced a new charity plan which was thought up by Munger and approved by Warren. The plan called for each shareholder to designate charities which would receive $2 for each Berkshire share the stockholder owned. This was in response to a common practice on Wall Street of the CEO choosing who received the company's hand-outs (often they would go to the executive's schools, churches, and organizations). The plan was a huge success and over the years the amount was upped for each share. Eventually, the Berkshire shareholders were giving millions of dollars away each year, all to their own causes. The program was eventually discontinued after associates at one of Berkshire's subsidiaries, The Pampered Chef, experienced discrimination because of the controversal pro-choice charities Buffett chose to allocate his pro-rated portion of the charitable contribution pool. Another important event around this time was the stock price which hit $750 per share in 1982. Most of the gains could be attributed to Berkshire's stock portfolio which was now valued at over $1.3 billion dollars.
Warren Buffett Buys Nebraska Furniture Mart, Scott Fetzer and an Airplane for Berkshire Hathaway
For all the fine businesses Berkshire had managed collect, one of the best was about to come under its stable. In 1983, Warren Buffett walked into Nebraska Furniture Mart, the multi-million dollar furniture retailer built from scratch by Rose Blumpkin. Speaking to Mrs. B, as local residents called her, Buffett asked if she would be interested in selling the store to Berkshire Hathaway. Blumpkin's answer was a simple "yes", to which she responded she would part for "$60 million". The deal was sealed on a handshake and one page contract was drawn up. The Russian-born immigrant merely folded the check without looking at it when she received it days later.
Scott & Fetzer was another great addition to the Berkshire family. The company itself had been the target of a hostile takeover when an LPO was launched by Ralph Schey, the Chairman. The year was 1984 and Ivan Boesky soon launched a counter offer for $60 a share (the original tender offer stood at $50 a share - $5 above market value). The maker of Kirby vacuum cleaners and World Book encyclopedia, S&F was panicking. Buffett, who had owned a quarter of a million shares, dropped a message to the company asking them to call if they were interested in a merger. The phone rang almost immediately. Berkshire offered $60 per share in cold, hard, cash. When the deal was wrapped up less than a week later, Berkshire Hathaway had a new $315 million dollar cash-generating powerhouse to add to its collection. The small stream of cash that was taken out of the struggling textile mill had built one of the most powerful companies in the world. Far more impressive things were to be done in the next decade. Berkshire would see its share price climb from $2,600 to as high as $80,000 in the 1990's.
In 1986, Buffett bought a used Falcon aircraft for $850,000. As he had become increasingly recognizable, it was no longer comfortable for him to fly commercially. The idea of the luxury was hard for him to adjust to, but he loved the jet immensely. The passion for jets eventually, in part, led him to purchase Executive Jet in the 90's.
The 80's went on with Berkshire increasing in value as if on cue, the only bump in the road being the crash of 1987. Warren, who wasn't upset about the market correction, calmly checked the price of his company and went back to work. It was representative of how he viewed stocks and businesses in general. This was one of "Mr. Market's" temporary aberrations. It was quite a strong one; fully one-fourth of Berkshire's market cap was wiped out. Unfazed, Warren plowed on.
I'll Take a Coke
A year later, in 1988, he started buying up Coca-Cola stock like an addict. His old neighbor, now the President of Coca-Cola, noticed someone was loading up on shares and became concerned. After researching the transactions, he noticed the trades were being placed from the Midwest. He immediately thought of Buffett, whom he called. Warren confessed to being the culprit and requested they don't speak of it until he was legally required to disclose his holdings at the 5% threshold. Within a few months, Berkshire owned 7% of the company, or $1.02 billion dollars worth of the stock. Within three years, Buffett's Coca-Cola stock would be worth more than the entire value of Berkshire when he made the investment.
Warren Buffett's Money and Reputation On the Line During the Solomon Scandal
By 1989, Berkshire Hathaway was trading at $8,000 a share. Buffett was now, personally, worth more than $3.8 billion dollars. Within the next ten years, he would be worth ten times that amount. Before that would happen, there were much darker times ahead (read The Solomon Scandal).
Warren Buffet at the Turn of the Millennium
During the remainder of the 1990's, the stock catapulted as high as $80,000 per share. Even with this astronomical feat, as the dot-com frenzy began to take hold, Warren Buffett was accused of "losing his touch". In 1999, when Berkshire reported a net increase of 0.5% per share, several newspapers ran stories about the demise of the Oracle. Confident that the technology bubble would burst, Warren Buffett continued to do what he did best: allocate capital into great businesses that were selling below intrinsic value. His efforts did not go unrewarded. When the markets finally did come to their senses, Warren Buffett was once again a star. Berkshire's stock recovered to its previous levels after falling to around $45,000 per share, and the man from Omaha was once again seen as an investment icon.

India VIX

2012-02-10T23:27:00.000+05:30

India VIX has already started moving northways. This suggest a slowdown or stay order for the current bull run. It is currently staying on the support line

Week ended with Doji

2012-02-10T23:09:00.000+05:30

Nifty Getting resisted at 100 WSMA
Ichimoku Cloud will prove fatal for Nifty
Week ended with Doji

Currently Dow is trading 111 point down. FTSE has closed negative amid Greece Situation. I see Nifty to close -ve in coming week, at least 150 points move can be expected

2012-02-10T21:47:00.000+05:30

Yesterday I publish chart which was showing similarity in movement and today I tried to find out if next day charts showing any similarity over last day chart, and found yes it shows a Head and shoulder formation during full day.
Today nifty tried repeating the same but at 11:00 AM IIP data break the rule some how and Nifty come down heavily till 5347. Expect Gap down opening on Monday with sharp movement and full of volatility the price action, I had already published

Link: expected move would turn right on Monday

Same to Same intraday

2012-02-09T22:39:00.003+05:30

I have observed something very interesting to share with you all or which need further research. I worked on some of my previous intraday chart and found that it has behaved in similar fashion with minute details

Nifty consolidated till 13:30 and show sudden upmove
The upmove was for minimum 80 to 100 points.
All opened negative and was trading below the previous day closing
All made double top showing weakeness
Upmove started around 14:00 with breaking of previous day opening and moved higher

Gann level proved true again

2012-02-09T20:41:00.000+05:30

Gann level proved true again in deciding level if we do not where Nifty is heading, just have a look at different level today.

Nifty Guide Jan 9

2012-02-09T01:59:00.000+05:30

I have tried to draw Nifty possible price behavior for Jan 9. This is my first try based on similar price action on previous occasion.
The following chart has been drawn based on Gann Levels and tomorrow pivot.

The History by default

2012-02-09T01:20:00.000+05:30

Greece is at the center of the sovereign debt crisis that is worrying many investors and increasing the volatility of stock markets across the world. This is not a new phenomenon for that country, which has defaulted on its external debt many times since achieving independence at the beginning of the 19th century. Here are some facts that all investors should know about the history of Greek sovereign debt defaults.

Ancient DefaultThe first recorded default in Greek history occurred in the fourth century B.C., when 13 Greek city states borrowed funds from the Temple of Delos. Most of the borrowers never made good on the loans and the temple took an 80% loss on its principal.
Five TimesGreece has defaulted on its external sovereign debt obligations at least five previous times in the modern era (1826, 1843, 1860, 1894 and 1932). The first episode occurred in the early days of that country's war of independence, and the last default was during the Great Depression in the early 1930s. The combined length of period under which Greece was in default during the modern era totaled 90 years, or approximately 50% of the total period that the country has been independent. (For related reading, see Recession and Depression: They Aren't So Bad.)
Although many might consider this level of default to be excessive, Greece is nowhere even close to the top of the list. Venezuela and Ecuador, with 10 defaults each, share the (dis)honor of being the greatest serial defaulters of the modern era.
Greek War of IndependenceThe Greek War of Independence began in 1821 and targeted the end of Ottoman authority, which had ruled most of that region for centuries. In 1824, a loan of 472,000 pounds was secured on the London Stock Exchange to continue this fight. This offering was oversubscribed and buyers were required to put down only 10% of the purchase price with a promise to pay the balance over time. An additional loan of 1.1 million pounds was floated in 1825.
The unfortunate fact about these two loans was that speculators and middlemen in London skimmed off much of the proceeds before Greece received any funds. Another issue was that the Greek War of Independence soon descended into civil war between rival factions, making it difficult to even figure out who should receive these funds.
No interest payments were ever made to the bondholders on these two loans, and the value of the paper eventually plummeted to a fraction of the par value. It wasn't until 1878 that the Greek government settled on the loans, which by then with accrued interest had increased to over 10 million pounds.
Loan of 1832In 1832, another loan totaling 60 million drachmas was given to Greece, which was officially an independent sovereign nation. The loan was arranged by the French, Russian and British governments, and was ostensibly given to help Greece build its economy and manage the initial stages of governance.
The funds were mostly squandered on the maintenance of a military and the upkeep of Otto, a Bavarian prince that was made King of Greece by the English. Greece managed to stay current on this loan until 1843, at which time the government stopped payments.
The InterregnumAfter this default, Greece was shut out of international capital markets for decades. During this interregnum, the government became dependent on the National Bank of Greece for borrowing. The government's needs were modest at first but soon escalated and the National Bank of Greece provided funds at interest rates that were twice the international lending rate. (For related reading, see Get To Know The Major Central Banks.)
1893 DefaultAfter the Greek government settled outstanding defaults in 1878, the global capital markets opened once again to Greece and, as you might expect, lenders were only too eager to provide funds. This borrowing increased to unsustainable levels and the government suspended payments on external debt in 1893.
In 1898, foreign pressure led Greece to accept the creation of the International Committee for Greek Debt Management. This committee monitored the country's economic policy as well as the tax collection and management systems of Greece.
1932 DefaultIn the early 1930s, many countries defaulted on sovereign debt obligations as the world economy contracted and entered what became known as the Great Depression. Greece imposed a moratorium on paying on its outstanding foreign debt in 1932. This default lasted until 1964, the longest of any of the country's five defaults. One interesting historical anecdote is that Eleftherios Venizelos was the Greek Prime Minster that defaulted on Greece's sovereign debt in 1932.
Evangelos Venizelos, the current Greek Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, is at the center of current crisis and heavily involved with negotiations with the European Union. The two are not related, however, and there is even unsubstantiated speculation that he changed his name to Venizelos to gain political advantage. (For related reading, see The Italian Crisis.)
The Bottom Line
The history of the Greek financial system is not encouraging to those investors that are hoping that this country avoids defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations. Some may take comfort in knowing that while previous defaults were dislocating to the market, the global financial system did not suffer any long term damage because of these events.

Source: Investopedia

Intraday Update

2012-02-08T16:59:00.000+05:30

Selling at higher level has been noticed. 5390 proved strong resistance second time in two day. Nifty bounced from 5330. tomorrow opening may confirm the direction.

Nifty Mid Day review Feb 8

2012-02-08T15:23:00.000+05:30

Volume has reached at the level Nifty must decide where to go, It has matured at this level and now a deciding move is in waiting
for the coming two session left for this week, Nifty target would vary minimum 130 point
5370 - 130 = 5240
5370 + 130 = 5500

Nifty level for Feb 8

2012-02-07T17:20:00.000+05:30

After closing with huge gain in preceding five Tuesday, bulls want rest. This Tuesday bears are clear winner as it did not let bulls passing 5390 with confidence.
Higher volume has been noticed at higher levels with lowering Nifty. This is profit booking. But you never know when it suddenly turn bearish. After all every bull and bear run start in hourly trend change which leads to daily, weekly, monthly and so on.
Bulls may try to tighten their grip again at 5200 level.

Nifty showing weakness at higher levels

2012-02-07T16:44:00.000+05:30

Nifty has started showing weakness at higher levels, and indicated the most anticipated correction. I would advise traders not to lose ground and short only when consolidation occurs at lower level with lowering moving average. Nifty may move till 5220 before taking another direction.

Intraday analysis Feb 6

2012-02-06T17:38:00.000+05:30

Today we might have witnessed recent rally top. If not then 5402 is strong resistance. There we can expect completion of 5th leg. A possible reversal if happen, 150 to 200 points need to fill up recent gaps. Watch out for trend line joining 5390 to 5080.

Nifty Monthly

2012-02-06T12:18:00.000+05:30

I have put in here, most of the oscillators with Nifty Monthly Chart and you will come to know, why some informed trader get maximum out of market. Because they see larger picture of the market. They never get concern of hourly or weekly chart. I would still suggest to any investor, if want to earn from market, go on accumulating quality shares in small quantity and see the profit after 2-3 years. You will be surely in bull market at that time.

Bulls are back!! yes it is!!

2012-02-04T01:13:00.001+05:30

Earlier I publish a blog with similar title: Bulls are back!! is it true?? where in I was in doubt, cautious and looking for some more confirmation.
Today I can say, yes, bulls are back. It might prove super bull. Nifty has already closed above 5000 and above 200 SMA, i.e 5200. both are very important. physiological level and now Nifty is trading firmly beyond 5300.

Yes, I am still waiting for much awaited correction, which will not of that previous expected intensity, but it would be a healthy one.

If you have still any doubt, please have a look at longer term oscillator and indicators, if you believe in it
I am sure it would be an eye opening for you, and this may change your bearish view......!!

Download this chart to view in bigger size

Longer term outlook: Fairly Bullish
Short term outlook: Healthy correction is due for minimum 2 to 3 weeks

Do not miss the train this time, as many missed during March - April 2009. Do not give full credit to Congress government only who won the election in May 2009. Bull was started it's northward journey two months back after fair consolidation. Is UP election has to do something this time?

Good to read: S&P Reversal

Missed the train

2012-02-03T19:02:00.000+05:30

There are times when you assume you have missed the train without realizing that it may be a long distance train…and even jumping on in middle of journey can be gratifying experience. After producing so many barriers to Bulls, Bears are now losing heart. Everyone suddenly start calling, start of new bull cycle.

Might be it is true, but this rally has proved once again that stay invested. The only and ultimate way to gain success in any market.

This rally did not gave bears a single to enter based on oscillator and indicator follower. They keep waiting to negotiate with levels and Nifty crossed time 200 SMA.

I suggest to all bears do not feel like a missed opportunity, because

Bulls make money, bears make money, and PIIGS get slaughtered

So be on one side, if you can not leave your ego.....

Use Gann to Target Nifty

2012-02-03T17:05:00.000+05:30

I am continuously finding Gann as very very important tool to target higher level of Nifty. Specially when you are not sure what should be the high or low of current rally.
It happen many a times that we know target very easily by drawing different resistance and support, based on weekly, daily, hourly or even monthly level. But there might be chances of error because we often use one or two time line to draw resistance or support.
Gann gives you advantage over normal level decider as it is free from any trend or previous performance of any level. It is free from historic trend. It never gets biased also.
I am still doing my research and found it very rewarding with low risk.

Decide the trend
Set target in trend direction
Put stoploss on lower Gann level
Keep on improving stoploss on higher Gann level

Sell Nifty at higher level

2012-02-03T11:32:00.000+05:30

Sell Nifty for intraday gain, below 5266 for target 5255, 5242, 5227. Keep this it is purely a for intraday

Evening Star in making

2012-02-02T23:42:00.000+05:30

Evening star in making, three candle of evening star become shooting star, which is bearish
FTSE has already created hanging man, Dow is trying hard to make partial evening star

FTSE outlook Feb 3

2012-02-02T23:07:00.000+05:30

FTSE Survived second "double doji" formation for one day.
First "double doji" formation was followed by huge correction
Now, hanging man has been developed in top
I believe a major correction is due now, may brings cheers to all bears

Hourly Nifty Analysis

2012-02-02T20:39:00.000+05:30

Nifty is moving in lower channel now
Volume is missing as Nifty moving higher
Rounded top in develepment
Any small bad news may lead to correction or when FII wants.
Upper resistance as per Gann Table: 5292 - 5310 - 5329
On lower side strong support seen at: 5250 - 5230 - 5218 - 5200

Intraday Nifty Analysis

2012-02-02T17:03:00.000+05:30

Possible head & shoulder on daily basis has been created on intraday. Right shoulder is slightly low which signifies weakness and nifty preparation for quick correction. Nifty close the day with a doji on higher level which is bearish sign. This may drag nifty to 200 SMA major support now.

Nifty monthly view

2012-02-01T23:11:00.002+05:30

Nifty Monthly chart is highly promising for bulls in medium to long term. The same situation has started to build up like one developed between September 2008 to March 2009. All indicator in shorter term was highly overbought, denial was in air as far as market, nifty or economy was concern. But, technical play it's part, FII pumped in funds and suddenly everybody become bullish ignoring all overbought indicator of short term. Many curse their fate for not being part of a super bull run. Adventurer and short sighted lost their life time hard earn money. Only beneficiaries were long term investor who stay invested during bad time.

My view: Start accumulating good stocks in small quantity and enjoy a bull run which may take off after cooling this current jump. Market is very near of it's bottom up

Please have a look at various oscillators all are in oversold zone now. Are you still bearish...!!

unstoppable bulls

2012-02-01T17:07:00.000+05:30

Nifty proved once again, who is real boss,

There is very limited option for bears now
One last huddle for bulls is 5235 which happen to be monthly trend line
Bears might wait a longer this time
Today's Nifty movement has shattered most of the bears hope of down fall
One can expect lower down in immediate fall up to 200 SMA i.e 5200

US Outlook

2012-01-31T23:18:00.000+05:30

Dow is trading in red
Continental wedge triangle break down noticed
Consumer confidence data come surprisingly low in January 2011
Read full story on bloomberg

UK Closed in Red

2012-01-31T22:48:00.000+05:30

FTSE Closed in red again, though managed marginally up from previous close
Continuously second close below the trend line is not good for bulls

Nifty and Tuesday Factor

2012-01-31T20:39:00.000+05:30

Today is 5th consecutive Tuesday to close with huge gain
Yesterday gap (5163 to 5204 has been filled today
Nifty struggled at weekly pivot of 5148 before moving higher
Oscillators have started showing sign of weakness and negative divergence

Ever since market topped out in November 2010 all bull months have been followed by at least 2 bear months. If this is actually a bull (which is unlikely) then second month should also close with white candle else...
Two weeks ago there was more bears and now there are more bulls. So this is time to scare not to be greedy or adventurer unnecessary. Wait for a firm close above 200 SMA and outcome of Greece bail out report

Nifty Intraday analysis

2012-01-31T20:24:00.000+05:30

Today Nifty roaming around weekly pivot 5148 and then suddenly move up at 2:30 PM (1:30 and 2:30 is very crucial timing for the last one month)

Europe Dept in Graph

2012-01-31T14:16:00.000+05:30

Europe dept is more than GDP and Greece is more than 150 % of it's GDP

Meet the 'Mind Traps'

2012-01-30T20:23:00.000+05:30

Here is a quick test to determine your Investment Quotient (IQ).
Stock A at Rs100 has a 7% chance of dropping below Rs100 in the next five years.
Stock B at Rs200 has a 93% chance of gaining from this price level in the next five years.
Which is a safer investment bet--Stock A or Stock B?
In case you picked Stock A, you are being very smart or foolishly brave.
In case you picked Stock B, you are one among the many investors who fall for a very common mental illusion caused by "Framing" according to behavioural scientists.

In simple words, "Framing" stands for human fallibility to decide based on the way information is presented.
Let us revisit the IQ test
Both the stocks have an equal chance of falling by 7% from their current levels. After all a 93% chance of Stock B going up means it has a 7% (100-93%) chance of falling.

In case you chose Stock B, you are not very different from the average man on the street who prefers Stock B to Stock A just because it is presented in a manner that makes it appear more appealing.
As humans, we always make approximations in our decision making process. No wonder, we are all on the lookout for easy ways to make money. One of the approximations we do is to figure out departures from a base case described rather than calculate what is the eventual outcome.

So in this case, the description of Stock A's 7% chances of falling turns out to be the base case and the second option is evaluated against this. So a 93% chance of rising looks good for Stock B. The mind does not grasp the implications of a 7% fall and 93% rise in the first sweep!

In case you managed to get the above test right in one sweep, great show! But be sure to stay away from the many more that abound.

Experience comprises illusions lost, rather than wisdom gained.
- A French Parish Priest
Investors are not as much "risk averse" as they are "loss averse".
Here is a desi version of classic example that the founding fathers of this discipline, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, presented to two groups of people.

Group I choice set
You have Rs1,000 in your pocket and need to choose between one of these two investing options
Option 1: A sure shot gain of Rs500
Option 2: A 50% chance to double the money and a 50% chance of making no profits
What would you choose?
Group II choice set
You have Rs1,000 in your pocket and need to choose between one of these two investing options
Option 1: A sure shot loss of Rs500
Option 2: A 50% chance of losing the Rs1,000 capital and a 50% chance of losing nothing!
Hmm! In their experiments they found that 84% in Group I chose option 1 whereas in Group II, a good 69% chose option 2!!

Know why the groups chose those options the way they did? It had to do with the way the options were posed to them. Group II participants had a sure shot loss staring at them as one option whereas the other option presented them an opportunity though half a chance to walk away with losing nothing.

Of course, the knowledgeable among you would have figured out that there is nothing to choose between the two options, as they are the same.

Hence, as long as the Sensex is climbing 400 points every month, a bullish trader will stomach a 100-point fall during a week and see it as a money-making opportunity. But when the Sensex is in a downtrend, even a 100-point rally during a week does not enthuse the traders enough!

In fact, empirical studies done in the USA prove the following: "Positive emotional value of a gain is only one-half to one-third of the negative emotional value of an dollar equivalent loss. For example, a $100 loss causes emotional pain two to three times the emotional pleasure of a $100 gain." This theory is called "Prospect Theory"?

Most people feel more pain for losing Rs100 than they feel happiness when they make Rs100.
Which portfolio would you prefer?
Portfolio A has Rs1,000 worth of one stock that appreciates by 10% and Rs1,000 worth of another stock that declines by 15%.
Or
Portfolio B has Rs1,000 worth of one stock that stays flat and Rs1,000 worth of another stock that declines by 5%.
There are similar studies done that demonstrate people prefer portfolio B to portfolio A.

Why?

Portfolio A has one stock that declines by 15% whereas the maximum decline of stock in Portfolio B is 5%. The mind ignores the fact that the other stock in Portfolio A appreciates by 10%.

Hence, most people prefer Portfolio B to Portfolio A though both the portfolios lose the same.

Source: Sharekhan

Nifty Hourly analysis

2012-01-30T18:01:00.000+05:30

We can expect a short term pull back which is based on purely technical basis of oversold indicator. Nifty is still in bearish mode. Do not keep losing position for long. Maintain strict stoploss if going long at 5050 level.
Target 5130 > 5148 (max)
use 5160 as strict stoploss for any short position. This expectation is only applicable for intraday.

Expectation from Nifty

2012-01-30T16:56:00.000+05:30

Yesterday we noticed that Nifty climbed the mountain without volume, which proved fatal for our dear bulls. That is why I keep saying always we with volume. This is not hindi movie where hero and roam around like "Singham".

5050 level need to watch for immediate support as it has highest volume concentration and other reasons ( I will put on coming post)
5170 is very strong resistance for any sudden upmove

Nifty follows Gann level like child

2012-01-30T16:12:00.000+05:30

Gann level just mesmerized today by making nifty dance on it's tune. I am still learning the practical implementation on Gann Level on intraday basis, and it is very encouraging.

Nifty made high and low excatly on Gann Level, one may find it just a coincidence and I also do not want to drag anyone into any kind of argument. But, would not it be very satisfying even if Nifty close with a margin of 5 point from Gann Level.
Today Nifty confirmed hanging man pattern on intraday basis by opening gap down and closing with a huge black candle.
Bulls now need to wait for some time before resume higher run. Let bear finish some unfulfilled task.

Nifty Outlook Monday Jan 30

2012-01-30T02:13:00.000+05:30

NSE Nifty moved in a range of nearly 200 points and ended with a gain of over three per cent at 5,205.
The Nifty has closed bang on its 200-day daily moving average (DMA). The index has not been able to close above its 200-day DMA since early May 2011. Given the positive momentum indicators, it seems set to cross this psychological level for now.
However, going ahead, the index is likely to face considerable resistance around 5,250 - which is the 50-WMA (weekly moving average). Above which, this uptrend could face another major resistance around 5,370, the higher end of the Bollinger Band on the weekly charts.
In the near term, the markets may now turn choppy, given the near overhead resistance (5,250) and overbought conditions on the daily charts (RSI is above 75 per cent). The wide consolidation range for the Nifty could be 5,250-4,950.
Next week, the index could face resistance around 5,280-5,325, while seeking support around 5,130-5,080.

Nifty outlook for the week Jan 30

2012-01-29T23:09:00.000+05:30

Last corrective leg is due in Feb 2012

Nifty Long Term outlook

2012-01-29T01:20:00.001+05:30

Source: Just Nifty

Looking at all these graphs, recent bull run seems excellent pullback by bulls only to sink again. Time will revel the truth. I believe mega bull can not take off without a solid consolidation of about 2 years. Some of the good signs has already unfolding but this is not sufficient enough to push the market. Market is king it loves more.....!!

Weakness noticed on hourly Nifty

2012-01-28T20:26:00.000+05:30

Nifty is lacking volume at higher level, which is not good for bulls, bulls can not conquer higher levels without volume
Negative divergence has been noticed in hourly Nifty

Nifty outlook on weekly chart

2012-01-28T19:53:00.000+05:30

50 WSMA is waiting for bulls
Niufty unlikely to break weekly channel
5200 resistance is very strong because it has took long time to built

Nifty Intraday Analaysis

2012-01-27T17:14:00.000+05:30

Today Nifty has consolidated between 5180 to 5190 and then move higher.
It has created hanging man on top of a bull run. Let's see if this time it proved unlucky for Bulls.

Remembering Feb 28, 2011

2012-01-27T16:51:00.000+05:30

I got a very unique profile photograph of a blogger which was a intraday chart (Shown above). I tried to find out the day on which it was occurred and ultimately got it. It was Feb 28, 2011. Even though Nifty made a shooting star next day it opened high and went higher.

Happy Republic Day

2012-01-26T02:39:00.000+05:30

Niftymama Wishes you all Happy Republic Day

News based trading

2012-01-26T01:58:00.000+05:30

You can notice no level work if trading is based on some news. Still people make mistakes.

Never go against the tide in news based trading.
Do not do adventurer trading by taking put (that too if getting cheap)
Avoid any trade in option if it is near expiry because of time decay factor
Most of the trader simply forget that they can't manage their risk like professional by buying different call/put spread and other techniques like butterfly strategy etc
Go with the tide if you can not avoid trading and that too after waiting for some time

Next time you may got such opportunity on budget day,

Intraday Analysis on expiry day

2012-01-26T01:46:00.000+05:30

Nifty did not show much volatility on expiry day. More consolidation has been observed above 5148. This show more upside movement.

Nifty intraday analysis II

2012-01-23T15:49:00.000+05:30

One more tight consolidation of Nifty between 5030 to 5060. As expected, RBI may not cut rates, but even if it give indication about rates cuts in near future, Nifty may move higher or cross 5100 at least tomorrow.

Nifty has observed all bad news these days, like, RIL report, Infosys report etc. Might be some smart money inflow has kept Nifty afloat higher.

Nifty Intraday update I

2012-01-23T11:48:00.000+05:30

If Nifty could not sustain above 5040-5045 range for at least coming 1 hour then weakness can be seen and Nifty can touch 5000 level.

High divident yield stocks

2012-01-22T16:51:00.001+05:30

High dividend yield stocks offer a safe haven to investors where safety has greater priority compared to high returns. Hence, even if the market remains volatile, going ahead, an investor can still get a decent return on investment, thanks to good dividend yielding stocks. The dividends are paid no matter what direction the stocks move and can provide a higher yield on investment in a weak market.

Company Name	Idirect Code	Div. Yield % 2011	Div. Yield % 2010	Div. Yield % 2009	Div. Yield % 2008	Div. Yield % 2007	Div. Yield % 2006	Div. Yield % 2005
Alfa Laval (I) #	ALFLAV	2.4	2.1	2.7	2.3	3.0	2.5	3.4
Allahabad Bank	ALLBAN	2.6	3.9	6.4	4.6	4.1	5.1	3.6
Andhra Bank	ANDBAN	3.6	4.6	10.0	5.4	5.0	4.3	2.8
Ashok Leyland	ASHLEY	3.5	2.7	5.5	4.3	3.9	3.3	4.8
Castrol India #	CASIND	3.3	4.1	4.5	3.9	4.0	3.3	3.8
Chambal Fertilizers	CHAFER	2.4	3.1	4.3	3.6	5.8	4.6	6.2
Clariant Chemicals #	COLCHE	4.1	5.3	12.3	3.0	5.3	7.6	2.4
Deepak Fertilizers	DEEFER	3.2	4.0	7.1	3.6	3.5	3.0	4.8
Electrosteel Castings	ELECAS	4.0	2.4	9.2	2.9	3.3	3.4	3.0
Finolex Industries	FININD	3.4	4.6	3.6	4.6	4.4	4.3	4.3
G N F C	GNFC	3.4	2.9	5.4	3.2	4.9	3.7	5.4
GE Shipping Co	GESHIP	3.0	2.7	4.3	4.0	5.7	3.4	5.9
Graphite India	CAREVE	3.8	4.0	13.7	5.8	5.8	2.0	2.3
GRUH Finance	GRUFIN	3.1	3.0	5.2	2.6	2.2	2.7	4.7
Hindustan Unilever	HINLEV	2.2	2.7	3.1	4.2	2.8	2.5	3.5
Indian Overseas Bank	INDOVE	3.5	3.8	9.9	2.6	2.9	2.7	3.2
Karnataka Bank	KARBAN	2.8	3.3	9.2	2.5	2.1	3.0	2.8
Nava Bharat Ventures	NAVBHA	2.7	2.1	5.4	2.6	4.0	2.5	2.3
O N G C	ONGC	3.0	3.0	4.1	3.3	3.5	3.4	4.5
Polyplex Corporation	POLCOR	4.9	4.1	6.2	3.8	3.9	2.4	4.3
State Bank of Travancore	STABTR	2.4	2.6	6.1	2.1	3.3	2.4	3.7
S C I	SCI	5.1	3.2	8.5	4.3	4.9	5.0	4.7
Supreme Industries	SUPIND	2.4	3.2	4.7	4.6	3.2	3.2	3.2
Syndicate Bank	SYNBN	3.0	3.5	6.3	3.7	4.4	2.8	3.7
T N Newsprint	TAMNEW	3.8	5.0	7.9	4.5	4.8	2.6	4.7
Tata Chemicals	TATCHE	3.0	2.8	6.4	3.2	3.9	2.7	4.3
Tata Elxsi	TATELX	2.8	2.2	8.5	4.4	2.4	3.3	3.0
Tata Investment Corporation	TATINV	3.1	2.6	6.5	3.1	4.4	2.8	4.0
VST Industries	VSTIND	7.0	5.8	13.3	6.5	6.1	2.6	5.4
Wyeth	WYELED	2.6	2.8	7.8	6.6	6.6	4.0	4.9

Gann levels and intraday

2012-01-20T16:49:00.000+05:30

I am testing Gann levels on Nifty for quite some time. Now I am enjoying to count and watch Nifty accordingly. I have noted down some advantage of Gann Levels

It never change hence easy to memorise
It has not calculation involved (except once)
Easy to match with other level (Pivot, Camerilla, Fib Point)

Some times it happens that we did not calculate pivot and doubt on fib or Camerilla at that time, you can look at Gann level for confirmation. Will update you about more finding in next blog.

Today what happened in last 10 min is not understood my me. I am still looking for the reason and I am sure as a human being I will come out with some reason which will satisfy my understanding. But it clearly made us believe one more time the importance of stop loss. Bears were lurking full day and in 12th hours bulls took the cake and walk away, which left all frustated. Bulls because of missing time and bears because some one spoil the party.

Hence once again a good advise, maintain your stop loss to enjoy the party irrespective of nifty movement.

Euphoriac Bulls

2012-01-19T16:11:00.000+05:30

It seems we are in Euphoriac bull run, but who know a 2009 repeat this time. Or at least March 2010 repeat. One need to be careful before going long or short, especially for trader community. Else if you are investor, do not worry and keep investing in small quantity.

Market is too hot to touch

2012-01-19T14:39:00.000+05:30

Today Bulls are in denial mood and it seems recent high is even higher. After defying all technical indicator, Nifty is still bullish. It seems Nifty will repeat, March 2010 again, when all indicator was bearish still it was going high. (For full report please refer: Is Bulls Back, I doubt)

I am not expert in this field however a keen observer and try to catch Nifty as per tested and classical method. Some times it took time but it works. And even if it did not click, then stop loss hai na. Ask any bear who traded on last three tuesday, he may explain better the importance of Stop Loss

India Vix

2012-01-18T23:58:00.001+05:30

India Vix is testing trend line with RSI and Stochastic in oversold zone. This may give a bounce and a chance trap Bulls.
A correction is very soon.

Good Fight of Bull vs Bear

2012-01-18T16:15:00.001+05:30

Today Bulls were able to defend important level of 4949.00 which happen to be today's pivot and also bollinger middle band. please refer my previous post
Let's see what bear has stored to unfold tomorrow. Bears might get another chance near 5000 level

Intraday Nifty outlook

2012-01-18T13:55:00.000+05:30

Nifty need to sustain above the middle trend line on hourly basis, it will move higher till 4990 or 5000
Else bears are waiting to pull nifty below 4900 on EOD bais.

Bulls are back !! is it true??

2012-01-18T01:30:00.000+05:30

I tried to look Nifty at bigger frame, and found that, Nifty may repeat what it has done in March 2010 when everybody was expecting to get a quick down and bears were full of mouth watering oversold in almost every indicator but Bulls were the winners defying all odds.

4947 should act as a major support now
Upper limit for current bull run might be between 5080 to 5110
Keep in mind Bulls are very strong this time as it has started it's march past after much consolidation
I am not bullish for short term, as this time Nifty is in down trend and RBI policy may trigger the down fall next week
Best time for long term investor is only after March 2011 when election in UP will be over and budget will be on the floor

Nifty Intraday

2012-01-17T16:10:00.000+05:30

When Bulls works everyone take rest. I did not find much observation except consolidation in last two hours of trading after Europe opening.

Next level to watch is 4987 > 5005 > 5023

Nifty Weekly outlook

2012-01-17T01:59:00.000+05:30

Watch out for 4949 as upper limit for bulls to cross and bears last hope for tomorrow. It does not mean I am bullish for this month. I mean if Nifty crosses 4949 and sustain above it for around half hour then it may go higher

Nifty Daily

2012-01-17T01:56:00.000+05:30

Nifty must close above 4900 if bulls wants to move further else bears are strong below 4865

Nifty outlook Jan 17

2012-01-17T01:54:00.001+05:30

Important level for Nifty

4823 to 4825 because it happen to be lower bollinger band and 50 hourly SMA respectively also this band is applicable for 50 DSMA

Intraday Nifty

2012-01-16T17:56:00.000+05:30

Nifty made today higher high, higher low
Respected resistance of 4882
Closed above crucial resistance of 4865
Bears fails to make Nifty below 4830

Nifty Week @ 4866

2012-01-16T03:53:00.000+05:30

Dallal St again started looking at negative news for possible sharp downfall. As a crowd we all behave in same way. We all will try to follow some resistance and support level. Some try to beat market by keeping stop loss slightly less than those level or slightly higher than so called important level. Still we do, not because we love to do so, but because it gives all of us a direction in darkness.

Important observation for tomorrow

Nifty may open on soft note amidth bad news from Europe
Weekly chart is still bullish for short term
4760 to 4765 is very strong support for this week
On upper side Bulls need to face stiff resistance at 4935 and
Minor resistance at 4900 and 4917

Gann Level Chart for Quick reference

Facebook IPO

2012-01-15T01:19:00.006+05:30

Facebook IPO will occur probably between april and may 2012. This will be the biggest IPO in tech/internet industry (10 billion dollars) : 6 times more than Google in 2004 (1.67 billion).
Only 3 other US companies had 10billion+ IPOs : AT&T 10.6 billion (2000), General Motors 18,1 billion (2008) and Visa 19,7 billion (2010).

The social network will be valued at 100 billion dollars. This is bigger than Disney (61 billion), Amazon (88 billion) or McDonald’s (95 billion)

IPO social network

Who are Facebook Shareholders ?

-Mark Zuckerberg, founder : 24%
-Dustin Moskovitz, co-founder : 6%
-Eduardo Saverin, co-founder : 5%
-Sean Parker, Napster founder : 4%
-Peter Thiel, Paypal founder : 3%

Facebook Revenues :

Estimated at 4.2 billion for 2011. If you think that’s a huge number…, Apple makes that amount in only 3 weeks..

Facebook will also have 28% of the ads seen online and 17.7% of online ad display revenue.

Source: Facebook Infographic

Psychology of Trading

2012-01-14T00:24:00.000+05:30

Source : Wallstcheatsheet.com

Be ready for Free Fall on Monday

2012-01-13T20:27:00.000+05:30

US and UK is in red on Friday today. On Monday we will follow them religiously and with the help of killer dojis at top and oversold slow stochastic we will try to catch falling knives

Three Killer Doji

2012-01-13T18:42:00.000+05:30

Three Doji has appeared at the top of daily chart. which is strong reversal sign
These Doji can be combined with oversold stochastic to anticipate clearly what will happen next

Nifty Held at Gunpoint

2012-01-13T17:08:00.002+05:30

Gann Level really works,

I am observing very minutely and trying to resolve the mystery of mass thinking. How and why a group of people behave in a common fashion.

Today bulls successfully defended 4847 till 12:30 and after that crowed play it's part and keep Nifty going up.
Around 12:30 Nifty completed it's second leg and was poised to go up,
Around 4880 it got resistance but crowd filled with greed make it even higher and try to touch fire @ 4900
Fifth leg completed and Bears of the market come out of their den to make some profit, selling spree start and Nifty lose all the gains

Note: For Gann level please click the page Gann Calculator

Nifty Gain Loss chart in last 65 trading Day

2012-01-13T01:59:00.000+05:30

Bull Hurdle

2012-01-12T23:35:00.002+05:30

Option trading tips

2012-01-12T23:15:00.005+05:30

Gann Level and Intraday

2012-01-12T15:55:00.001+05:30

Please find how different Gann Level act to decide Nifty on intraday basis

Look below at the Gann Table Value

Importance of 4883

2012-01-11T20:29:00.000+05:30

Following points make 4883 an important level for Bulls to cross

This is Golden ratio (61.8%) level from 5100 to 4530
Nearing 50 DSMA
Important resistance as per Gann Level ~ 4882
Break out point as per Daily Camerilla calculation ~ 4881
Next resistance as per Daily Pivot Point ~ 4878

It would not be easy for Bulls to cross all these hurdles

Volume and Nifty level

2012-01-11T17:48:00.000+05:30

Inportance of Gann Points

2012-01-11T16:10:00.000+05:30

These levels will not change for tomorrow trading, For more Gann Levels use Gann Calculator

Now look at below intraday chart which was formed next day after a bull run (like yesterday), and try to find out similarity yourself

Nifty Intraday Chart Similarity

2012-01-10T23:47:00.001+05:30

What is the similarity between intraday chart pattern of 28 Nov, Jan 3 and Jan 10. They all opened gapup and move further ahead
Learning

Avoid shorting in all Gap UP opening (I never repeated since Nov 28, ha ha ha ha)
Keep in mind the time 13:30 (matched with UK opening)
Watch for 4881 next resistance

Nifty Arc and SMA

2012-01-10T12:53:00.001+05:30

Time will only unfold the following possiblity, I am putting my efforts to read Nifty ahead of time
If history to believe then Nifty is getting ready for sharp decline again

Slow stochestic is in oversold zone
50 SMA approching (though it is not very strong resistance)
Fib Arc may provide resistance as it does in past
Time spend between last two decline are equal now

28 Oct to 7 Dec total 26 trading days
8 Dec to 11 Jan 26 trading days (will history repeat)

India VIX relation with Nifty

2012-01-10T01:27:00.000+05:30

There is inverse relationship between India VIX and Nifty.
Slow stochastic is clearing showing in both the chart that Nifty and VIX are ready for reversal
Time delay in moving Nifty go past 4800 has only dampen the bulls spirit

Nifty Weekly Data is showing more rosy picture
Slow stochastic is in buying mode

Delay in very much hyped Nifty bull run by a week has only making bears strong.
Nifty will take a dip before resuming Bull run in short term or moving above 4830

Dow is trading in narrow range

2012-01-10T00:52:00.000+05:30

I believe Dow is in making of rising triangle which is a bearish sign

FTSE update

2012-01-09T20:26:00.000+05:30

Break out has been noticed in triangle created by 30 min chart in FTSE.
Currently trading 25 point down
US has opened weak

Nifty EOD Jan 9

2012-01-09T15:39:00.000+05:30

Bulls defended 4695 level well and not ready for big move ahead.
IIP number, Infosys and HDFC results will further give direction to Nifty

intraday update I - Jan 9

2012-01-09T12:53:00.000+05:30

Highest Volume at 4760

2012-01-09T01:59:00.003+05:30

Nifty Outlook for Jan 9

2012-01-09T01:39:00.000+05:30

Nifty has successfully managed to closed in the channel, and it has already touched the based of it. We can safely assume to higher close on Monday if this channel keep intact.
Slow stochastic is bullish with increasing volume is also favoring bulls.
Nifty is still above 20 DSMA which happen to middle of bollinger band.

News to watch on Monday Jan 9

2012-01-09T01:25:00.000+05:30

Hungary's debt rated "junk" across the board, underscoring investors' doubts about the government's willingness to change its controversial policies in return for aid to stave off a financial crisis. Fitch Ratings said it was downgrading Hungarian sovereign debt by one notch to BB+ with a negative outlook, putting the country's bonds in the higher risk category and suggesting the investment climate was not going to get any better. Fellow credit rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's already rate Hungary below investment grade.

On Monday, 9 January 2012, all eyes will focus on China, which will tentatively release its latest economic growth, inflation and trade balance figures. Also on Monday, US consumer credit figures will come out, while in Europe traders will keep an eye on Swiss unemployment rates and French consumer spending figures. The UK, meanwhile, will release manufacturing and industrial output figures while in Canada, housing starts and building permits will be released.

Slow Stochastic in Bullish crossover

2012-01-08T03:16:00.000+05:30

Slow stochastic can be noticed giving bullish crossover on weekly chart.
Closing above 200 WSMA i.e 4765 would favor bulls

Nifty P & F Chart

2012-01-08T02:57:00.000+05:30

Nifty breakout sign is showing above 4754 and continuation in downside will be below 4580

Nifty update for Monday

2012-01-08T02:25:00.003+05:30

Nifty has successfully managed to closed in the channel, and it has already touched the based of it. We can safely assume to higher close on Monday if this channel keep intact.
Slow stochastic is bullish with increasing volume is also favoring bulls.
Nifty is still above 20 DSMA which happen to middle of bollinger band.

Intraday Nifty update

2012-01-06T16:37:00.000+05:30

Nifty Hourly

2012-01-06T08:54:00.000+05:30

Nifty Hourly Graph suggest Nifty may correct till 50 SMA which happen to be 4700. We may see last correction till 4705 to 4720 range before bull run for this month.

Nifty Future Trading 25 point down

2012-01-06T08:51:00.000+05:30

Nifty got resisted again

2012-01-05T16:08:00.000+05:30

Nifty Resistance 4780

2012-01-05T03:47:00.000+05:30

Gann Table for Jan 5

2012-01-04T19:51:00.000+05:30

Consider this Gann Table for Nifty levels. Also you need to calculate with the opening of tomorrow Nifty and trade accordingly.

Nifty wave analysis

2012-01-04T19:35:00.000+05:30

Nifty intraday

2012-01-04T19:33:00.002+05:30

Intraday Nifty Jan 4

2012-01-04T16:23:00.000+05:30

Nifty could not break 4780 today but bulls are still strong as it has managed to close above 4730

Nifty hourly

2012-01-04T16:21:00.000+05:30

Nifty need to break 4780 before moving upward

Intraday analysis Jan 2

2012-01-03T18:28:00.000+05:30

January Month in Nifty History

2012-01-03T13:47:00.002+05:30

Nifty Eod

2012-01-03T11:54:00.003+05:30

Intraday Analysis Jan 2

2012-01-03T02:14:00.000+05:30