Nify will move in a range of 5020 to 5165 in this week

Nifty will move between 5020 to 5165 in coming week, before moving higher.

today's level is

5107 Strong resistance
5093
5077
5051
5029 Strong support

Till now Nifty is in triangle in 2 min chart and struggling at 5066.00

Nifty may bounce till 5100 next week

Nifty may open gap up 50 point as future is being traded with a premium of 42 points.

We can expect a bounce till 5100.00 in next one week

My Nifty level is
4960
4940
4890
4862
4850

Nifty will open Gap Up

Support of the year 2010

Nifty views from other blogs

Do not expect a 2008 repeat..........??

Expect strong bounce back today......
till 5022 not more than that
5022
5006
4985 Strong Resistance
4958
4894
Nifty may open around 4940

Can Nifty touch 200 EMA as well?!

Nifty is at very crucial stage, without touching 200 EMA moving above at this time when everything looking bad is very unlikely.

1. Nifty has given very strong bounce from 200 SMA and formed hammer which is a bullish sign
2. Still below 100 EMA is bearish sign
3. Option data not showing any bulliness, 5100 CE and 5000 CE has added huge OI
4. Similar pullback witnessed in DOW as well

My personal view is Nifty can not move for higher level without volume and good news. Though very near to start a bull run till 5600, but not before a closing between 4800 -- 4900

200 EMA approching at 4891

Less the time Nifty will take to touch 200 EMA i.e 4891, powerfull would be the bounce back.

Nifty may be in a flag formation or in a traingle formation both are bullish in nature.

Data suggest mild bearish, tecnical also suggest bearish, But if Nifty start making the triangle, bulls will be there

Nifty Views for Week starting May 17, 2010

a. Only 5 of the 50 stocks have reached the weekly OS state - 10 more in clear bear zone, with downward bias.
b. Only 23 of the 50 reached > 90% of 5Day volume avg. Of this 23 only 5 have +ve trend balance 18 are going down with volumes.
c. Of 26/50 which are in <90% - 19 are in "Down" trend and 7 in "not decided" zone.
d. 33/50 have developed -ve divergence in FMACD and 26 these are -ve in SMACD also.

So equities say Down.

e. 23 of 43 Futures tracked are either Weak or Weakening as per OI-PRICE indicator.
f. Overwhelming 40 of 43 futures have give a "Down" trend signal - Price indicator.
g. 18/43 are in weekly OS status and still signalling "Down"

So Futures say Down Down.
Precious metals and dollar are rapid in upward movement - does it indicate change in "Parking" preference for the big boys.

Added to all the TA is the looming GB threat of 18.05.10. Hope the dawn will bring in more clarity.
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In the past whenever we broke the trendline support, starting from March09 lows, we have retraced approx 23.6% from the recent highs.

1. 2540 to 5182 = 2642 points*23.6% = 623... 5182-623 = 4560
Low made 4540

2. 2540 to 5311 = 2771 points*23.6%= 654... 5311-654 = 4657
Low made 4675

Will it follows this time also
3. 2540 to 5400 = 2860 points*23.6% = 675... 5400-675 = 4725???
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Nifty is down today ..........

5000 is neither support nor resistance ... !!

5122 is very important support which is most likely to breach today, and if so then wait till 5037, One interesting point is that 5000 is not going to prove important resistance or support for Nifty.

Call put in high volatality like today May 10, 2010

When volatility is very high, and the market has just made a dramatic move and you are expecting it to consolidate and take some time to digest its gain, you might consider selling a strangle. When you observe the past days of open Interest Action then you could definitely get the clue that calls are being written at 5300CE and 5400CE and puts are being written at 4900PE, 5000PE and also market showed a dramatic move on the upper side. So there is possibility of Nifty remain in range between 5000-5300 Zone range or 5100-5400 range. So a Nifty sell strangle comes into my picture while observing the current open interest scenario.When we sell a strangle, the put and call that we sell are normally on over-priced options that are out -the-money. We consider doing this after a dramatic move in the market, when we are expecting it to consolidate the move and digest its gains before moving again. Because of the dramatic move that was made, volatility is high, making the options we sell very expensive. Then as the market consolidates, volatility decreases and lowers the price of the options. Decay also works in our favor with this position.

Currently 5200CE is Rs 45.75 and 5300PE around Rs 91 so there is a possibility of getting a maximum profit of Rs 6837 = [(45.75+91.00)*50] if nifty expires between 5200-5300 with the lower protection break even point 5063.25 and upper protection break even point 5436 in nifty. And your position is sage until nifty between the break even pts 5063-5436.

And here are the list of profit/loss at different expiry levels

Nifty at expiry... Profit

4800.................... -13,162.50

4900.................... -8,162.50

5000.................... -3,162.50

5100.................... 1,837.50

5200.................... 6,837.50

5300.................... 6,837.50

5400.................... 1,837.50

5500.................... -3,162.50

5600.................... -8,162.50

Nifty and my imaginary Fib Fan

I have drawn my imaginary Fib Fans to know if there could be any possibilities of any bounce back. I must admit I may be biased in concluding that 4840 may provide the magical support level.
Nifty may try sideways before taking a quick dip up to 4840 and start moving northwards.
I see Nifty in consolidation since Oct 2009, and on a verge of mega bull run

Nifty Historic Supports in recent past

Nifty has taken major support historically at 40 Week EMA, 80 Week EMA and 200 Week EMA. This time it is nearing 40 Week EMA again.
So watch out if Nifty behave technically or on world news plays a greater part.

Nifty in different time Zone

Nifty yet to touch 200 EMA level at 4877, it may take one week to do so.
Tecnically every indicator is almost showing Oversold Zone and ready to a bounce back.
And those indicator which is not showing may enter oversold Zone in coming week if Nifty try to make a flag now and followed it by inverted head & solder formation
as it has done during Third Week of Jan 10 to Second Week of Feb 10
Or it may start moving north from May 10, 2010 which is very unlickly as world clue is not good.

Nifty may bounce back from 100 Days EMA

Nifty 20 week EMA is 5126 and 100 days EMA is 5103

One can expect a quick bounce back from 5115 to 5105 level

Nifty will open gap up between 5235 to 5240 will reach 5250 quickly and then strugle to surpass 5255 to 5277 jone
I believe bulls have upper hand for this month and if closes above 5280 this week then 5477 is not a far cry

Bulls and bears separated by 5200

In Line Graph Crusial level is 5250, Nifty may try to fill the void created by Gap down opening yesterday

Nifty may try to reverse the medium term downtrend till 5200 is intact

No bad news in globle market is a good news .. !!

Absence of any bad news can serve as a good news for Indian Market
An inverted hammer with high volume in Nifty weekly chart gives expectations of up move for the forthcoming session. One may take this as assurance if Nifty stay between 5280 and 5308 for at least 3 hour.
The momemtum is seen quite suppotive for the market and RSI is also in up move.